The State of the 2024 Election

By Chip Genung ’25

​We are less than two months into 2024, and there have already been many developments with the 2024 election and its primaries. In the Democratic Primaries, Biden is dominating as expected, but that is not the interesting primary race. The Republican primary, on the other hand, is shaping up to be a very interesting race. Super Tuesday, the day in March on which most states have their primaries, is quickly approaching, and currently, Donald Trump maintains a strong lead over Ambassador Nikki Haley. Less than a month ago Florida Governor Ron DeSantis dropped out of the race, leaving Haley as the only major contender against Trump for the nomination.

The Iowa Caucus awarded 20 delegates to Trump and eight to Haley; the New Hampshire primary awarded 13 to Trump and 9 to Haley. New Hampshire was much closer than Iowa but still is by no means enough for a path to victory for Haley. Nevada, the most recent primary, did things differently from the rest of the states. They were required to hold a primary, but since the state GOP had chosen to hold a caucus, none of the primary votes would be used to determine delegate allocation. Due to this, Trump opted out from running in the primary while Haley decided to stay, which meant that Haley was on the primary ballot, while Trump would be on the caucus ballot. But despite not having Trump on the primary ballot, Haley still lost, gaining only 30 percent of the vote, while the “none of these candidates” option won over 60 percent of the vote.
 
Though a meaningless blow, it is not great PR for her campaign. Still, what is most likely her last chance to prove that she should be the nominee is in her home state of South Carolina, where 50 delegates will be allocated on Feb. 24. Though possible, it is an extremely narrow path to victory, with Nikki Haley polling almost 30 points behind Trump. However, South Carolina hosts an open primary, meaning that, regardless of what party a voter belongs to, they can vote in either the Republican or the Democratic primary. This means that right-leaning Democrats and Independents could vote in the Republican primary and, due to her moderate policies, would most likely cast their ballot for Haley. With just a few weeks until Super Tuesday, this primary season may be finishing before it even really starts, unless Nikki Haley can win in her home state to gain the momentum she needs to continue.