As the war in Ukraine escalates, NATO is being tested

By: Nazar Tatus ‘27

As of September 11, 2025, it has been 1,296 days without any ceasefire in the war in Ukraine. What began as a quiet conflict in 2014 turned into a war of exhaustion, marked by violence, war crimes, corruption, and deliberate provocations of the West.

The most recent and significant development occurred on the night of September 10th, 2025, when 22 to 25 Russian drones crossed into Polish airspace — Poland being not only a key member of the European Union but also a vital NATO ally. While some of the drones were taken down by the Dutch F-35s, which started patrolling Eastern Europe starting September 1st, the use of the defense was at least 3 AIM-9 rockets, whose cost already adds up to 1.2 million dollars, at the cost of one Russian drone, about $35,000. As the Polish minister of sovereign affairs stated, this violation of Polish sovereignty was not just a computer mistake but could have been a direct challenge to the alliance’s collective defense principle, enshrined in Article 5 of the NATO treaty, which states that an attack on one member is considered an attack on all. This incident isn't the first time neighboring countries to Ukraine have found themselves being influenced by the air attacks, but it is the first time more than a dozen drones were found outside of the conflict zone. In the end, this is just a test to see both the Polish air defense and the reaction of the Western allies for the future. 

Russia’s pattern of checking the Ukrainian allies is clear when viewed against the backdrop of U.S. policy in 2025. For instance, after the U.S. administration delayed new sanctions and reduced the pace of advanced weapons deliveries in early 2025, because of the Trump-Zelenskiy conflict in the White House, Russian missile strikes surged. According to the European Security Monitor, missile attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure increased by nearly 40% in the first half of 2025 compared to late 2024. Starting in March 2025, Russia has been launching air raids nonstop every day, whose intensity increases not just by dozens, but by hundreds. This escalation followed a period when U.S. aid and diplomatic pressure on Russia had plateaued, demonstrating a clear correlation between Western hesitation and increased Russian aggression.

Under the current U.S. administration, military aid to Ukraine has noticeably slowed compared to earlier years of the conflict. This reduction, coupled with diplomatic caution, raises concerns among NATO members about America’s reliability as a leader and protector. The drone incident over Poland illustrates how Russia is testing the boundaries of NATO’s collective defense. Similar provocations—such as missile strikes near the borders of other NATO members like Lithuania and recent sabotage along the Poland-Belarus border—underscore a broader pattern: Russia seeks to exploit any hesitation to weaken the alliance.
​
In this sense, the war in Ukraine is not just a regional conflict but a strategic examination of global security frameworks. Russia’s increasing aggression is a calculated test to determine if NATO allies are truly battle-ready and if the U.S. can still be counted on as a dependable partner. The future of European security may well depend on how decisively the alliance responds in the coming months.